By Evan Pritchard for Amazine
Just in case you were not paying attention, Reyes is on a pace to get 81 stolen bases this year and 206 hits. So what? You had to ask. Now I have to tell you.
The Mets, after the horrid collapse of the dam which is their bullpen in Pittsburgh, reminiscent of the Johnstown Flood (in that it was one of those really bad days) have now played 120 games. They are just about at the ¾ mark for the season. To figure out what they are on a pace to achieve at this juncture, just multiply everything (except ERA of course) by 1.35. In spite of a couple of bad days, they really are healthy in the stats department. Especially Jose Reyes.
Reyes has 60 stolen bases so far, which puts him on a pace to get 81, which would be a career high for him and a single-season high for the Mets. Of course Rickey Henderson, a base coach for the Mets, had an unbelievable 130 stolen bases in one year, and that is the all time record, but he wasn’t in a Met uniform at the time, so the honors fall to “Jolly” Roger Cedeno who had 67 stolen bases for the Mets a few years ago. Reyes is about to swallow that record and spit out the bones.
That 81st stolen base would be number 295 for Reyes lifetime. Not bad for five years, an average of 59 per year, but the top 50 list starts with Steve Sax with 440 lifetime. At that average pace Reyes will pass Steve Sax in April of 2010 and (probably) enter the top 50 All Time. However, please note that Reyes raised his season totals from 13 to 19, to 60, 64 to 81 (projected) stolen bases, so if you extend that trend, he might steal 100 in 2008 and 120 in 2009, which would have him passing Sax in June of 2009. You never know in this game. He might get 131 stolen bases in 2010, and break Rickey Henderson’s mark for good. Even if he were to revert to his average 59 pilfered bases per year, (if he, say, moved to Alaska, ate whale blubber, and gained 150 pounds over the winter) he would pass Maury Wills (586) in another five years, placing 19th on the all-time career list.
But then there’s the hits. I have been writing about this matter of Reyes’ hits since one year ago, (and wrote him an impassioned letter which he has yet to answer, except in the language of hits) and we are beginning to see the writing on the wall. I told him that very few players have ever broken the 200 hit mark and about half of those who do go to the Hall of Fame, pass GO and collect $200 dollars, figuratively speaking. Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Carl Yazstremski, three Cabalieros of Red Sox lore, never did it. Few Yankees have done it, and only one Met, Lance Johnson. Mike Piazza did it before becoming a Met, but just barely, and only once.
What is truly amazing is that if Reyes gets 206 hits this year, which he is on a good pace to do, he will have done something Babe Ruth never accomplished, gotten more than 205 hits in a single regular season. Of course, Babe only had 154 games a season to play in, but that hits per season record is a huge one, and looms big for those baseball plutocrats in Cooperstown who sit at mahogany tables in smoky back rooms deciding who will enter the Hall of Fame and who won’t. “More hits than Babe Ruth ever got? Yeah, we’ll put him on the guest list.”
Babe Ruth passed the 200 hit mark three times, and got 204 hits in 1921, 205 hits in 1923 and 200 hits in 1924. He never broke the 205 mark in spite of his remarkable ability to get on base, but all Reyes has to do is keep up his current season pace and he’ll be zipping past The Big Bam like Road Runner past Coyote. It could happen in about six weeks. Last season, Reyes had a long shot of hitting 200 right on the nose, but sat out of some games in September and fell short. This year, I think he’s going to make it.
All he has to do then to get into the Hall is pass Rickey Henderson in stolen bases and NOT GAMBLE. Pete Rose passed 200 hits almost every year, and stole a lot of bases, but gambled and lost his shot at the Hall of Fame. Somehow, Reyes does not seem the type. And, Oh yes, a World Series appearance or two would help a lot!
Home runs and stolen bases tend to occur in inverse quantities throughout baseball history.
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