Glavine Has Spahn's Records In His Sights

I was at Shea Stadium this evening (July 25th) and watched as southpaw Tom Glavine enjoyed a somewhat glorious 299th win after a rough first innning where he basically walked the bases loaded. The Mets won 6-3. Glavine is now within one of 300 wins, which would tie him with Lefty Grove, and enter into the 300 wins club with man they called The Invincible One, Warren Spahn, the winningest leftie in the game, with 364.

Glavine's boyhood in Concord, Mass, was spent idolizing Warren Spahn, or so the legend goes. If you read my new book from FlushingUniversity.com, Flushing Fever (p. 54) you will learn that his career and Sphan's have followed a strangely similar pattern, and will also learn that at the end of 2006, Glavine still had given up 54 less losses than Spahn, a career ERA of 3.46, which was .19 better than Spahn's; 112 less homers allowed, and most importantly, was only 102 strikeouts short (2481) of Spahn's lifetime total of 2583.



Just before today's opening pitch, Glavine had 60 strikeouts on the year (131.2 innings) and had a total of 2541 Ks, which was only 42 short of Spahn's record. He is projected to pitch 206 innings this year, fanning 94 batters, based on his current rate, but the fact is he needs to really get a bee in his bonnet (Spahn had a B ON his "bonnet" when he was in Boston, then they moved to Milwaukee and it changed to an M) and pass Spahn THIS YEAR!

This season, Glavine has been averaging only 0.457 strikeouts per inning. His projected 206 innings is probably accurate; he is unlikely to surpass that by much, so at that strikeout rate, he is likely to fall 8 strikeouts short, with 94 Ks on the year. This would be a terrible shame.

Spahn spent his 21st season as a Met and then after a short stint elsewhere in September, he retired. Most of those last strikeouts were tossed as a Met. This is Glavine's 21st year. He is also a Met. It is fitting that he should complete his lifetime conquest of Spahn's legacy this year, and as a Met. Glavine's future after this year is a little uncertain.

Glavine will certainly end the year in the 300 club with Spahn, and could do so by Tuesday. He will also be ahead of him in the home runs allowed department by year's end. His lifetime ERA is now up to 3.49 thanks to a rough outing last week, but he is still safely ahead of Spahn's mark of 3.84. But the strikeouts, that's what has me worried.

At first pitch, Glavine most likely had 75 innings left in the regular season, and he needed 42 more Ks to tie, and 43 to beat. To get the 43 more strikouts, he would have to up his strikeout rate to 0.57333 Ks per inning (75x 0.57333=43) for the rest of the year, not a big increase, but an important one, less than one more strikeout per start.


OR he needed to pitch 94 more innings while keeping his strikeout rate the same (94x 0.457 = 42.958) approximately 43 strikeouts. Since Glavine rarely goes past the sixth, this would mean three extra starts beyond his current rate. This seems unlikely. So in order to fulfill his destiny as a Met, Glavine must find a way to get one extra strikeout every time he goes out to pitch.

Here's another way to look at it. Glavine is likely to have about 11 more starts this year. He can't really count on more than that. He needs to strive to get 4 strikeouts per start from here on in, ie 44 more Ks this year, bringing his season total to 106 (including the two from Wednesday, his 61st and 62nd on the year, 2542, 2543 lifetime). That would put him over the top by 4, and bring his lifetime total strikeouts to 2587 while in a Met uniform. He would by then have passed Jerry Koosman, #27 on the all time list with 2556, Bob Feller, who is #25 on the all time list with 2581, and most importantly for him, Warren Spahn who is #24 on the top strikeouts list with 2583, something that those boys (and girls) up in Cooperstown keep careful track of.

Here's a possible scenario, one that would be very exciting for Mets fans: Let's say Glavine pitches every sixth day, and gets four strikeouts per game from here on in. His ascent up the All Time Strikeout Kings roster would look like this--
date strikeouts
July 25th 2543 (current, #28 just ahead of Christy Mathewson)
July 31st 2547
Aug 6th 2551
Aug 12th 2555 (one short of Jerry Koosman)
Aug 18th 2559 (passes Koosman #27)
Aug 24th 2563 (passes Tim Keefe #26)
Aug 30th 2567
Sept 5th 2571
Sept 11th 2575
Sept 17th 2579
Sept. 20th 2583 (passes Bob Feller #25, ties Spahn, #24)
Sept. 26th 2587 (passes Warren Spahn, #24)

Even if it means one less fielding gem per game by Jose Reyes, Glavine needs those 44 more strikeouts (10 more than predicted) as much as he needs 300 wins. Both are things that should be in the prayers of every Mets fan as Glavine completes this senior season.